Imposing sanctions on violent regimes is usually ineffective, and often hurts the people that the regime oppresses.

He is mostly right, but (as is his tendency) he falls into simplistic exaggeration.

I contend that some of the sanctions against Belarus are likely to be more effective than usual.

• Making it hard to fly to the west from Belarus will mainly hurt the elites. The borders are not closed. Ordinary people travelling out out of Belarus can take a bus or train; it is not far.
• Cutting down on purchases of oil via Belarus pipelines will hurt the regime directly, and can fit into a plan to reduce fossil fuel use.

Insisting that flights not fly over Belarus is not primarily a sanction, it is a necessary safety precaution.