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ECOWAS v. Niger coup generals

jeudi 10 août 2023 à 07:17

Niger *Niger: thousands gather for rally to cheer generals who led coup.*

Some carried Russian flags as well as Niger flags. That confirms that this rally was not a grass-roots expression of public opinion. It confirms that the generals are allied with Wagner, which also supports coup-installed governments in neighboring Mail and Burkina Faso.

Wagner may have suggested the coup in Niger and encouraged the generals to organize it.

Wagner is a conventional military force and Ukraine has shown it be defeated by conventional military force. It was sent to serve Putin's wish to get more global power by military means, but it is officially a private mercenary company, not the Russian army. There is no reason not to send a Western force to operate ground-attack aircraft and heavy weapons to help defeat it. But given the hostility in the region toward France, the former colonial power which is accused of continuing neocolonial exploitation there, it would be wise not to include French troops.

(That article includes lots of other pertinent information.)

To prevent atrocities, it would be important for the force to have people from Niger as advisors, and consult them about each proposed attack to make sure the target is not a wedding or a family. American soldiers, even with strict orders and good will, can't always distinguish correctly. I expect that no one else can do better.

The governments sending that force must firmly resist the temptation to convert it into a counterinsurgency battle afterward against the predatory Islamist gangs that threaten all the countries in that region. They are a very different problem, and much harder, and Western countries tend to do it very badly.